The End of the H-1B Lottery: Analysis of Donald Trump’s New Immigration Proposal

The End of the H-1B Lottery: Analysis of Donald Trump’s New Immigration Proposal

This article analyzes the recent proposal announced by former President and current candidate Donald Trump regarding the elimination of the H-1B visa lottery system in the United States. The plan aims to replace the current random selection process with criteria based on merit, salary, and the employer’s demonstrated need. The objective is to clarify the implications of this change, its potential impact on the labor market, and provide guidance for professionals and companies preparing for this possible new scenario.

Keywords: H-1B visa; immigration; United States; immigration policy; global workforce.

Introduction
The U.S. immigration system has always been a central topic for foreign professionals seeking career opportunities in the United States. Among the various work visa options, the H-1B visa remains the most commonly used by tech companies, engineering firms, healthcare providers, and other industries requiring specialized knowledge.

Recently, Donald Trump, former President of the United States and candidate for the 2025 election, announced his intention to end the current H-1B visa lottery. If implemented, this change would significantly alter the current dynamics of professional immigration to the United States.

This article explores the proposal, discusses its impacts, and provides guidance to foreign workers and employers about the potential consequences of this policy shift.

What is the H-1B visa?
The H-1B visa is a temporary work authorization granted to foreign professionals with a university degree or equivalent experience. It allows U.S. companies to hire qualified foreign workers for specialized occupations, such as information technology, engineering, healthcare, education, and other technical fields.

Each year, the U.S. government allocates 85,000 H-1B visas: 65,000 for the general pool and 20,000 reserved for candidates with a master’s degree or higher from U.S. institutions.

Due to the high demand, the selection process is currently conducted via an electronic lottery, ensuring equal opportunity for applicants regardless of the employer or the offered salary.

Donald Trump’s proposal
In a recent interview with Forbes, Donald Trump stated his plan to eliminate the H-1B lottery system, arguing that the current model is unfair and promotes random selections without considering candidate merit or employer necessity.

The proposal suggests adopting objective evaluation criteria, prioritizing:

  • the highest salary offered to the foreign worker;
  • the candidate’s academic qualifications and professional experience;
  • the employer’s proven inability to hire U.S. workers for the position.

According to Trump, this approach would ensure that H-1B visas are granted only to highly skilled and essential workers when no qualified American worker is available.

Consequences and concerns
Although imperfect, the lottery system is widely regarded as a fair method for distributing the limited number of H-1B visas. Eliminating the lottery raises several concerns, such as:

  • Favoring large corporations with greater financial capacity to offer higher salaries, potentially excluding startups and small businesses;
  • Limiting opportunities for highly skilled foreign professionals who receive competitive but not excessive salary offers;
  • Reducing innovation and economic growth by discouraging the entry of global talent into the U.S. workforce.

According to a study by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), approximately 55% of U.S. startups valued at over $1 billion were founded or co-founded by immigrants or have immigrants in key leadership roles.

A system focused solely on financial factors could prevent highly qualified professionals from joining smaller companies, which are often crucial for innovation and market diversity.

How professionals and companies should prepare
Although Trump’s proposal has not yet been implemented, it is prudent for companies and professionals planning to work legally in the United States to start preparing. Some recommendations include:

  • early planning: Gather necessary documentation and organize the immigration process in advance;
  • specialized legal support: Consult with immigration attorneys or advisors to explore alternatives such as the O-1, L-1, TN visas, or merit-based green cards;
  • stay informed: Monitor policy updates to adapt quickly to new requirements.

Final considerations
The announcement of the potential end of the H-1B lottery marks a significant shift in U.S. immigration policy discussions. If implemented, this change could favor companies with greater financial resources while reducing opportunities for foreign professionals who meet market-level salary expectations.

It is essential for international workers and U.S. employers to stay informed, plan strategically, and rely on specialized guidance to navigate the evolving immigration landscape safely and efficiently.